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China and Uzbekistan have officially raised the level of bilateral relations to an «all-weather» comprehensive strategic partnership, as announced during President Mirziyoyev’s recent state visit to China.
In Chinese diplomatic terms, it means Beijing sees Uzbekistan as more than a strategic partner — a priority strategic partner.
If the declared commitment to “all-weather” ties is backed up with specific deeds and maintained in the long run, it could greatly affect the geopolitical status quo in Central Asia and transform the region economically.
When, after the Soviet collapse, Chinese foreign policy makers sat down to draft a Central Asia strategy (bearing in mind its proximity, energy resources, and security issues linked to its own Uighur and Kazakh-populated Xinjiang region), it was obvious that for the strategy to work they had ‘to target’ Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the region’s two biggest nations.
Development of Chinese ties with Kazakhstan has gone smoothly. Astana from the outset pursued a pragmatic and calculated multi-vector foreign policy, recognising both the economic and geostrategic benefits of cooperation with China.
Uzbekistan, however, proved to be a stumbling block. Its first post-independence leader Islam Karimov, a dictator paranoid about foreign interference, followed an isolationist policy during his 26-year rule.
Karimov died in 2016, leaving behind an almost non-existent economy (regulations under his rule held back development and put off foreign investors) and strained relations with neighbours and the rest of the world.
After taking over from Karimov, Mirziyoyev first mended ties with ‘the old patron’, Russia, not without ‘mediation’ from the Uzbek-born Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov, who has close ties to the Kremlin.
Russia’s current regime, however, can hardly be seen as a reliable, long-term economic partner, particularly after its invasion of Ukraine.
The spiralling chauvinism in Russia has recently started to take aim at Uzbekistan – a Russian writer has called for reuniting Uzbekistan with Russia; a historian claimed that Uzbeks did not exist before the Russian 1917 revolution. Both remarks caused a negative backlash in Uzbekistan.
China, therefore, emerges as almost the only heavyweight economic and geo-strategic partner that Uzbekistan can realistically lean on.
In an article ahead of his visit to China, Mirziyoyev said it was important to work out a new “long-term” cooperation agenda between the two countries.
Mirziyoyev needs to raise living standards in the country to ensure stability of his political regime.
His government is interested in Uzbekistan becoming part of China’s Belt and Road project, which would allow it to gain from Europe’s increased interest in new routes for trading with China, bypassing Russia.
The Uzbek government is also keen to develop a green energy sector, which nicely dovetails with China’s plans to downscale Belt and Road, i.e. invest in smaller, less risky and more sustainable projects.
Uzbekistan is also interested in getting access to Chinese technologies and scientific research, which Beijing is more prepared to share with smaller countries than the West.
For China, closer ties with Uzbekistan would notably increase its clout in Central Asia.
With 35 million people, Uzbekistan is the region’s biggest nation by population. Geographically it is at ‘the heart’ of the region, bordering on all four other Central Asian nations and Afghanistan.
It makes it a critical communication link between all of them and crucial for the region’s stability and capacity to withstand geopolitical pressures.
Notably, since, unlike Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is not a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Treaty Organisation, it is already less ‘tied’ to Russia.
China’s official Xinhua news agency said Mirziyoyev’s visit marked “a landmark upgrade” in ties.
It said bilateral ties have seen “significant progress” in recent years, with the sides engaging in “high-level exchanges” and launching projects in the areas of reducing poverty and green energy generation.
One such project is the construction of two 500-megawatt solar power plants in Uzbekistan’s Kashkadarya and Bukhara regions by China’s Gezhouba Group Overseas Investment.
In December, China’s Henan Suda signed a deal with the Uzbek government to build by 2033 some 50,000 charging stations for electric vehicles across the country.
During Mirziyoyev’s visit the sides signed a number of accords concerning the Belt and Road and other kinds of economic and technological cooperation.
