Kazakhstan: between embattled Putin and rest of the world in crisis

27.12.2023, 18:39 exclusive.kz

President Tokayev had a tight diplomatic schedule in 2023.

The main task was to prevent Kazakhstan from getting caught in the crossfire of flaring geopolitical conflicts. And to make the most of the opportunities that they present.

Tokayev visited 18 countries, met US President Biden, China’s Xi, had several meetings with Putin, and received Emmanuel Macron in Astana.

For obvious reasons, the biggest and most immediate challenge was dealing with Russia.

Handling Putin has never been easy. It got still harder as his regime regressed into a chauvinist ideology of Russians’ ‘exclusivity’ and ‘greatness’.

Since going to war against Ukraine, Russia has sunk deeper into its fantasy of ‘moral’ and ‘spiritual’ supremacy over others and of fighting for survival against an alleged Western plot to destroy it.

Paradoxically, the Kremlin started its existential ‘struggle’ at a time when the Russian elite were having no trouble enriching themselves both and inside and outside their homeland, and when the national budget was swelling from revenues from natural gas supplies to Europe.

Nonetheless, Russia’s self-inflicted crisis is a chance for Kazakhstan to reset its relations with the Kremlin on an equal footing.

There are also opportunities for Kazakhstan linked to the West’s interest in new energy suppliers and trade routes bypassing Russia.

With its economic ties with Europe damaged, Russia itself is looking for new opportunities in the south and east, which could bring more dividends to Kazakhstan as a transit corridor.

New trade and transit routes and related infrastructure projects were definitely high on the agenda of Tokayev’s foreign talks in 2023.

Kazakhstan’s relations with China appeared to be unclouded and steadily expanding in 2023.

Since November Kazakhs have been able to visit China for 30 days without an entry visa. The Kazakh government granted visa-free entry to Chinese citizens in July 2022.

China is, however, locked in a trade and chip war with the US, and facing internal economic problems. The Chinese economy is expected to slow next year amid the real estate market crisis and low consumer confidence linked to high youth unemployment and poor social security. Tensions with the US are discouraging foreign investment.

There is increased potential for expanding relations with the European Union and the United States given their interest in reserves of critical materials held by Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations, and in developing the Middle Corridor.

However, the overall international political trajectory in the next few years will depend on the outcomes of the Russian and US presidential elections next year — even if the result of the Russian vote is all but certain, bar a major upset.

In any case, President Tokayev is unlikely to have a more relaxed diplomatic schedule in 2024.